As the excitement builds for the 2024 Grand National, racing enthusiasts and punters alike are eager to uncover the secrets to selecting the perfect horse for the world’s iconic steeplechase.
In a race known for its unpredictability and capacity for producing underdog triumphs, harnessing the power of trends and historical data can provide invaluable insights into identifying potential contenders.
In this article, we delve into the world of trends analysis, exploring how factors like age, form, and weight can inform our selections in the Grand National 2024 odds.
By examining the patterns and tendencies that have shaped previous races, we aim to uncover the strategies and considerations that could lead to success on race day (April 13).
Age
It is best to side with horses aged between seven and nine, as eight of the last 11 winners of the Grand National have fallen within this bracket.
Some of the major horses that are ruled out on that basis include the defending champion and pre-race favourite Corach Rambler, former Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, and Galvin.
Odds
If the fact Corach Rambler doesn’t meet the age criteria wasn’t enough to put you off backing the market leader, then the statistic that only two of the last 11 favourites in the Aintree odds have gone on to win the Grand National might.
To add to that, just three of the last 11 winners were in the top three of the betting while eight of the winners assessed in the research were priced 11/1 or bigger.
That also rules out joint-second favourites I Am Maximus and Vanillier, who are both currently 9/1 in the Grand National betting, and 10/1 chance Meetingofthewaters.
Form
There is quite a bit to consider when it comes to form. Firstly, merely four of the last 11 winners won their final outing before the Grand National.
Furthermore, three placed, eight had their last run within 35 days of the event, and over half (6-11) had their last run at the Cheltenham Festival. But, the cancellation of the Cross Country Chase this year may have caused some disruption to that.
Three previous runs in the same season are pivotal, with all of the last 11 champions appearing at least that many times in the build-up to the Grand National.
Nine of the 11 had no more than six runs in the same year, while eight had at least one win before heading to Aintree.
Some of the notable entries these stats rule out are — Panda Bay and Kitty’s Light, who are both without a win this season, and Mahler Mission and Mr Incredible, who both haven’t raced at least three times.
Allocated weight
Nine of the last 11 winners were allocated between 10st 3lbs and 11st 5lbs by the handicapper. This dampens the chances of 2022 Grand National winner Noble Yeats, who had matched all the other trends to this point.
Course and distance mastery
Eight of the last 11 champions had at least one previous outing at Aintree, while three of those had at least one win at the Merseyside track.
More importantly, nine of the 11 most recent winners had at least seven runs over three miles or further, with eight having at least one win over that distance.
By these calculations, Capodanno is the horse to side with in the 2024 Grand National. Let’s look at the boxes he ticks.
Age: He’s eight years of age, so falls within the ideal range
Odds: He’s above 11/1, currently priced at 16/1.
Form: Capodanno didn’t win his last outing, appeared at the Cheltenham Festival, has more than three runs this season, and boasts a victory.
Weight: He did originally fall within the allocated weights at 11-4, but he now has to carry 11-7 — which could be an issue.
C&D: Capodanno has had a previous run at Aintree, pulling up in last year’s Grand National, while he has exactly seven outings over three miles or more on his record — winning three times.
